Prediction: Early states will tell the tale (OneNewsNow.com)

Prediction: Early states will tell the tale

Jim Brown - OneNewsNow - 11/4/2008 4:00:00 AM

secret ballot vote A prominent political scientist in the battleground state of New Hampshire predicts Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will sail to an easy election night victory by picking up around 350 electoral votes and winning the popular vote by a seven- to nine-point margin.

Polls in the last few days before the election have not indicated the race between Barack Obama and John McCain has significantly tightened. Tonight will reveal just how accurate those polls were.

University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala says if Obama is able to remain close in or even win the reliably Republican state of Indiana, that could be an early sign this evening of a big victory for the Illinois senator. According to Scala, traditionally blue Pennsylvania is a must-win state for McCain.

"I think he's got to be able to flip Pennsylvania, which has voted reliably Democratic now for a good decade-and-a-half," Scala observes. "He's got to flip that state -- and he's spent a lot of time there, so he knows the path to victory goes through Pennsylvania."

Scala says Virginia tops the list of states most likely to turn blue -- Democratic -- this year.

"North Carolina is on that list, too, which is especially surprising," he says. "I mean, Virginia was arguably on the cusp of flipping from red to blue because of all the new people living up in northern Virginia and the metro-Washington, DC, area. But North Carolina could be the sleeper of the evening because we could see Obama carry that state -- and we could see [North Carolina Republican] Senator Elizabeth Dole lose her bid for reelection."

Scala does not expect a popular vote landslide by Obama, but says a 53-to-46 or 54-to-45 percent win is possible.

Senate, House races
Meanwhile, the pollster believes Democrats will pick up six seats in the Senate tonight, raising their total to 57 -- three seats shy of a filibuster-proof majority.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report estimates that Democrats could pick up between seven and nine seats in the Senate tonight, and as many as 28 seats in the House, where they currently hold a 38-seat advantage. Scala says he will be closely watching the Senate race in Minnesota featuring Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken, as well as a surprisingly tight contest in the traditionally red state of Georgia. (Listen to audio report)

"The Minnesota race is very interesting, especially because you've got the third-party independent candidate there who's shaking things up," says the political scientist. "And then you're looking at places like...Georgia, where Saxby Chambliss is trying to defend his seat in a closer than expected race." He points out that according to Georgia's election laws, unless the winning candidate garners a majority of the vote, a runoff must take place.

Scala also points out that if moderate Republican Congressman Chris Shays of Connecticut is defeated tonight, there will be no remaining GOP congressmen in New England.