So far, so good for Romney

Friday, October 12, 2012
Chad Groening (

A political scientist and presidential election pundit says there's a good chance Mitt Romney will be America's next president, if history is any indication.

Presidential tracking polls have started to reflect the impact of Mitt Romney's debate victory last week. For example, a RealClearPolitics compilation of national polls shows Romney with a one-point lead over President Obama, and a Pew Research poll has Romney ahead by four points.

Dunn, Charles (Regent Univ.)Dr. Charles W. Dunn of Regent University's Robertson School of Government says the Pew poll is significant because it covers likely voters.

"The candidate who wins the first debate and the first poll after that usually wins the White House," he reports. "So, [Romney's] won the debate, and he has won the first poll, namely Pew, after that; and so the likelihood is that he will, given that point of history, go on to win."

And Dunn even expects the Electoral College to shift in Romney's favor.

"It's doable because what are we seeing? Movement in those states -- movement in Ohio and Florida, for example, and in Virginia in the Romney direction," the professor explains. "Some of them have clearly moved into the Romney column, so that bodes well in the swing states."

Right now, the RCP electoral map still favors Obama.

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