Keeping GOP's Senate majority may be key for Alabama voters

Tuesday, December 5, 2017
Chad Groening (

Roy Moore 11-2017If you believe the polls, it appears Roy Moore has weathered the onslaught of sexual allegations his accusers and critics hoped would derail his quest for a seat in the U.S. Senate.

President Trump has made it clear that he now voices full support for GOP candidate Roy Moore, who is in tough race against Democrat Doug Jones for the Senate seat in Alabama. On Monday, Trump tweeted: "Democrats' refusal to give even one vote for massive tax cuts is why we need Republican Roy Moore to win in Alabama."

It was Trump's strongest show of support for Moore since allegations surfaced that the candidate had sexually assaulted teenage girls nearly four decades ago. Moore has denied any wrongdoing, and his campaign has called into question the credibility of his accusers.

And today the Republican National Committee has resumed its financial support to the Alabama Republican Party's effort to elect Moore.

Tom Pauken, a former chairman of the Republican Party of Texas, is cautiously optimistic that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat vacated by now-Attorney General Jeff Sessions. He says even though it's not clear if the allegations against Moore are true, "I think a lot of people ... will vote for Moore simply because they're skeptical of the charges that have been made – and also because they want to hold on to the Republican majority."

Richard Viguerie, chairman of ConservativeHQ, also believes the race is moving in Moore's direction as the December 12 election date approaches.

"People are focused on the issue that Doug Jones is a left-wing Democrat [and] very pro-abortion," he argues. "And so the people now are coming back home and they're going to vote their Republican instincts. Unless something comes up between now and Election Day, Judge Moore should have a comfortable victory."

two voters marking ballotsThe polls say ...

One week ahead of the special election, recent polls bear that out. According to RealClearPolitics, Moore has moved to a nearly three-point edge in an average of polls in Alabama – an encouragement to the campaign after Jones had been ahead by a slight margin in the wake of the accusations of sexual misconduct levied against Moore.

"The lead is not as large as it was at one time," notes Bill Armistead, chairman of the Roy Moore for Senate Campaign. "Our daily tracking polls show that we're still five to six points up even after all the [allegations]. So we're thankful for the hard-core supporters that we have here in Alabama."

Armistead argues it's significant that for the most part the polls showing Jones in the lead were from very small samples, while the polls showing Moore in the lead came from much larger samples.

"Our polling is always with a large sample ... so I think that our polls are probably the most accurate out there," he tells OneNewsNow. "And their polls do not qualify that.

"We think ours are more accurate because we're asking a larger sample and we're also asking [if they] are ... likely to vote in the election. I think if you are polling people who are not likely to vote, your poll's going to be skewed and incorrect."

According to the National Council on Public Polls, polls based on larger samples are generally "more precise" but sometimes are not, depending on how respondents are selected.

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