Even though the party not occupying the White House typically gains Congressional seats after midterm elections, Democrats – who are down 45 House seats and two Senate seats – have fallen to just a six-point advantage, according to nationwide poll … a drop of 10 points since January.
A new Rasmussen poll asked 1,000 likely American voters what party they would favor if November’s midterm election was held now.
“If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?” the Rasmussen survey asked participants this week, according to WND.
Far from the double-digit lead they had earlier in the year, Democrats are now trying to maintain a single-digit lead, which they hope will not diminish before the fall’s midterms – or switch to the GOP’s favor, for that matter.
“[Pollsters] found the Democrats ahead, slightly, with 46 percent voting for the Democratic candidate and 40 percent would vote for the Republican,” WND reported. “Just 4 percent would vote for some other candidate, but another 9 percent are not sure.”
The familiar mantra from the Clinton years, “It’s the economy, stupid,” appears to ring true today when looking for an explanation for voters’ renewed confidence in the Republican Party.
“[W]isdom … says the party in power gets more support when the economy is doing well, and that appears to be the case in 2018 following the GOP tax-reform bill and other moves by President Trump,” WND informed. “So. who actually will hold the advantage? Despite all the media forecasts of a GOP bloodbath, it’s too early to tell, but the margin seems to be closing.”
Dems losing ground … fast
At the beginning of the year, CNN set out to gage how the midterms will pan out and found that its targeted audience, liberal Democrats, were most enthusiastic about voting this year – far more than Republicans.
“[T]hose voters who say they are most enthusiastic about turning out to vote this fall favor Democrats by a wide 15-point margin,” CNN divulged in January from its poll conducted by SSRS.
However, Republicans registered a major rebound the following month – in another nationwide poll conducted by Politico–Morning Consult consisting of nearly 2,000 registered voters – erasing Democrats’ advantage on the general ballot by taking a one-point lead.
“The Politico–Morning Consult poll finds that 39 percent of likely voters would support a generic Republican candidate in November, while 38 percent would support a Democrat,” The Hill reported in February. “Nearly a quarter of Americans, 23 percent, are undecided.”
While Republicans and Democrats were witnessed strongly sticking to their respective parties at the ballot box, it was another story for independents, who straddled the fence between red and blue.
“The main split in the new poll comes among independents, with 26 percent favoring a Democratic candidate and 25 percent selecting a Republican,” The Hill’s John Bowden pointed out at the time. “A sizable 49 percent of independents are undecided.”
It was also noted that the double-digit advantage enjoyed by Democrats just a few months earlier ran out of steam.
“The generic Republican candidate had trailed the Democrat by as much as 10 points since November in the Politico–Morning Consult poll,” Bowden pointed out.
Dems losing trust
Key indicators that voters are losing their confidence in the Democratic Party were unveiled through survey questions about who they put their trust in on a number of key issues.
“Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, maintain an advantage over Democrats when it comes to who voters trust to handle major issues, pollsters found,” Bowden divulged last month. “Nineteen percent of voters trust the GOP over Democrats when it comes to national security. Republicans also hold a 9-point advantage on job growth and 6-point edge on immigration.”
Surprisingly – even with the failure of former President Barack Obama’s signature health care program, Obamacare – more registered voters sided with Democrats regarding their medical needs.
“Democrats lead Republicans on just one issue: healthcare,” Bowden added. “The GOP trails Democrats by 4 points in that area.”
When ABC reported last fall that Democrats would likely have an advantage at the ballot box in 2018, the left-leaning media outlet quickly found that voters who weighed in at the 2014 midterms – who are also preparing to hit the polling stations this November – are just about as likely to vote Democrat as they are Republican.
“Winnow down to those who say they voted in the last midterms and are certain to do so again, and the contest snaps essentially to a dead heat – 48–46 percent,” ABC predicted last fall.